Rory McIlroy to win PGA? Not so fast
While a lot of pre-tourney talk concerns the newest member of the career Grand Slam club, there remain plenty of unanswered questions about this week. Don't worry, though, the Answer Man is here.
The 2025 PGA Championship is coming to you this week from Quail Hollow Club. And you’ve got questions — lots of questions. Welcome to A-Man Corner. The Answer Man is here for you (unless you’re trying to collect money he owes you, in which case he’s out of town or possibly expired).
Q: Is it too early to simply concede the trophy to Masters champ and new Grand Slammer Rory McIlroy?
A-Man: Yes. Well, at the very least, maybe. Your man McIlroy has already won PGA Tour titles four times at Quail Hollow, a course that at 7,626 yards seems almost built for him with his powerlifter length and frequent right-to-left shot-shape requirements. When Jordan Spieth bumped into McIlroy recently and congratulated him on winning the career Grand Slam, McIlroy suggested it could be Spieth’s turn this week. It is almost hard to believe, but Spieth is one PGA Championship away from joining the elite Career Slammers. Spieth’s reply, only half-joking, was “Yeah, at Rory McIlroy Country Club.” McIlroy is on a second-act hot streak and has already won three times in 2025 — Pebble Beach, Players, Masters. Right now, he is to Quail Hollow what Secretariat was to win, place and show tickets.
Q: So can anything or anybody stop McIlroy?
A-Man: You mean besides Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Bryson DeChambeau and other members of the Lumber Company? Sure, Rory himself. That was a one-of-a-kind Masters, a career-maker that established McIlroy as Europe’s greatest player of all time. Sorry, Seve (Ballesteros) and Sir Nick (Faldo). McIlroy got the monkey off his back and the consensus opinion is that now, at 36, the pressure is off. “It (Masters) was good for Rory’s psyche, maybe worse for us now that he feels free,” said Xander Schauffele. It’s just as possible that McIlroy will be emotionally drained after his RAT (Recurring Augusta Trauma) was finally cured.
Q: Could anything top last month’s breathtaking Masters Tournament for drama, historic significance and NASCAR-esque thrills and spills in the final round?
A-Man: A White Sox fan is now the Pope so, yes, anything is possible. Potential toppers: One, Spieth finishing off his own career Grand Slam after an eight-year major drought and a comeback from a wrist injury that had career-ending potential. Two, McIlroy winning the PGA Championship to spark calendar-year Grand Slam talk and URM (Utter Rory McMania). Three, defending champ Xander Schauffele wins, giving him three out of the last four majors. Four, Scheffler rebounds from his knife accident and in the wake of his recent record 31-under-par win and once again gets hotter than a thing that’s hot (pass the Writing Award for Best Analogy, please). Five, DeChambeau doing something wild and crazy. Six, Thomas, a two-time PGA champ who is making putts again and once again looks as dangerous as a bottle of nitroglycerin in a Bouncy Castle.
Q: Could McIlroy really win the calendar year Grand Slam this year?
A-Man: Even CBS golf host Jim Nantz, who’s so cautious that he looks both ways —and up — before crossing the street, won’t rule it out. “Absolutely, it’s possible,” Nantz said. “I was trying to think of what could happen the rest of Rory’s career that would ever approach what he felt Sunday at Augusta. There’s only one thing and that would be Sunday at Royal Portrush going for the calendar Slam. It’s completely conceivable.” Don’t forget, a calendar Grand Slam is so hard that even Tiger Woods never did it. But is it possible for McIlroy? Yes. Come on, who is going to argue with Nantz’s belief in one more shining moment?
Q: Is it true that only a long hitter has a chance to win this PGA at Quail Hollow?
A-Man: Never say never unless you’re titling a James Bond film. The combination of a long course and a weather forecast that includes rain means, yes, it should absolutely favor a long hitter. Remember who’s won at Quail Hollow over the years? Wyndham Clark. Big hitter. Jason Day. Big hitter. McIlroy, four times. Ditto. J.B. Holmes, XXL hitter. Woods. But golf is a funny game. You know who else won at Quail? Max Homa twice. Not a long hitter. Brian Harman. Not a long hitter. David Toms. Not a long hitter. Lucas Glover. Carries a long putter, does that count?
Q: Can one of the club pros win this PGA Championship?
A-Man: Well, Michael Block became America’s club pro sweetheart two years ago at Oak Hill when he contended and made an unforgettable final-round ace to squeak into the top 15. Good news, Blockie is back so … nah, it’s still a big no.
Q: How come everyone is all Rory-Rory-Rory and forgetting about Scheffler?
A-Man: The bookies haven’t forgotten. Scheffler is still the betting favorite, but not by much now. He is +400 (odds of 4-to-1) at DraftKings.com and FanDuel.com while McIlroy is +475 and +450, respecdtrively. If Scheffler hadn’t racked up that 31-under blitz at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, McIlroy might have become the betting favorite. But Scheffler is 70-under par in his last four starts with finishes of second, fourth, eighth and first, and spiking like Nvidia did before I got a bet down on it — I mean, purchased stock shares.
Q: What’s the most important hole at Quail Hollow?
A-Man: The late Ben Hogan would say, “The next one.” There are risk-reward holes aplenty at Quail Hollow but seriously, everybody has to play the 18th, a dogleg left, uphill to a green guarded by a creek that winds up the left side and is in play on the approach shot, too. Almost any number is possible. David Toms once made a 9 there in the final round … and still won. So the finishing hole could well decide the winner. Unless it doesn’t, in which case Hogan was right.
Q: The TV talking heads say Quail Hollow identifies the best player — hype or fact?
A-Man: Quail Hollow has produced numerous winners who also won majors, yes, starting with Woods, Clark, Day and Harman. It has also given us Sean O’Hair, Anthony Kim, James Hahn and Derek Ernst.
Q: Derek who?
A-Man: Don’t ask. It is believed that he later evaporated. But let’s not demean any PGA Tour winner. Each one shot the lowest score and effectively was the No. 1 player in the world the week they won. These guys are good, all of them. (Until you bet good money on them, then they turn into woodpeckers on Sunday, he said bitterly.)
Q: Now that the Woods-Phil Mickelson Era is over, are we entering a new Golden Age with McIlroy, Scheffler, DeChambeau, Thomas, Schauffele, Clark, Ludvig Aberg and the rest?
A-Man: In the midst of McIlroy’s current run, it’s easy to forget how dominant Scheffler was last year. He had no real rivals last year (not counting the Louisville Police Department). Maybe he caused a Scottie Effect. Like the Tiger Effect, maybe Scheffler’s run made everybody else work that much harder to close the gap. It’s hard to call this a Golden Age, however, when the likes of Dean Burmester is playing LIV Golf instead of the PGA Tour. Oh, and Jon Rahm, Cameron Smith and DeChambeau, too.
Q: So who’s going to win this PGA Championship?
A-Man: Back in February, I placed small wagers on McIlroy and Thomas before they got hot and their odds dropped. CBS analyst Trevor Immelman noted, “It’s a big hitter’s course that suits a right-to-left shot. If I was Bryson DeChambeau, I’d be licking my lips.” That’s a good call. I like Thomas because he’s back to making putts. After him on my draft board, in order, is DeChambeau; Scheffler, who’s more of a left-to-right guy; McIlroy, who’s sure to fire a closing 65 after a slow start puts him way behind; and Aberg, who was right there at the Masters again because driving it long and straight works just about everywhere.
Q: If you’re wrong, do I get my money back?
A-Man: Sure, triple what you paid me to read this.
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going against scheffler is like going against tiger. the percentages are with him.
feel free, paul. tommy fleetwood? i'll believe it when I believe it. he's great at coming close.
no bryson? hard to ignore him. no idea what's up with brooks koepka but how did all of us not mention him at all? he could be a dark horse. also... davis riley.