Is the 2025 Masters Rory McIlroy's to lose?

Needing only a win at Augusta National to complete the career grand slam, there is plenty of talk that McIlroy's the favorite because he's on top of his game and other top contenders are not.

AUGUSTA, Georgia — We spent Monday at last year’s Masters Tournament watching a solar eclipse, an event that won’t happen during Masters week again until 2044.

This week, the only eclipse at Augusta National is courtesy of Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler. They’re hogging most of the pre-tournament spotlight. It figures. They’re the two best players in the world, according to the metrics. McIlroy needs only a Masters victory to complete the career grand slam while Scheffler is trying to win a third Masters title in four years, a feat accomplished only by Jack Nicklaus.

They’re not Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, but they’re a reasonable facsimile. Golf needs them. The game is always better with a dominant player / superstar / top gun / king of the hill to chase. Just like baseball is always better when it’s Everybody Else versus the Yankees or the Dodgers.

The Masters is the most glamorous ball of the year, so, naturally, the most glamorous players get the most closeups. They’ve earned it. It’s just amusing that Xander Schauffele, who won two majors in thrilling fashion last year, and Bryson DeChambeau, who captured another U.S. Open with dramatic flair last year, arrive this week as sort of the undercard.

Well, that’s just one of the stories building to a scintillating crescendo at Augusta National Golf Club. (Scintillating crescendo? Even Jim Nantz, the official reverend of all things Masters, would throw a flag on that phrase for Unnecessary Hype Formation.)

Rory McIlroy has already won twice in 2025, including the Players Championship. | Photo: Fran Caffrey / Golffile

Here are some other things to consider about the 89th Masters.

Top Dog Meets Underdog

Look for this week to cement the new-and-improved popularity of McIlroy. He’s won four majors, his two victories this year include The Players Championship and he’s already had a Hall of Fame career, but he will be the new Masters Cinderella this week.

How is that possible? He hasn’t won a major in 11 years, back when Pharell Williams’ “Happy” was a hit. That’s shocking given his shocking level of talent. McIlroy has famously Greg Norman-ed (yes, that is now a verb — you’re welcome) a few U.S. Opens and a Masters. A win in Augusta puts him on Mount Olympus with Nicklaus, Gary Player, Tiger Woods, Ben Hogan and Gene Sarazen. Stunning. It also vaults him past legends such as Arnold Palmer, Mickelson, Tom Watson, Sam Snead, Lee Trevino, Nick Faldo and Seve Ballesteros and makes him Europe’s greatest all-time golfer. Masters fans know his story. They want to see history and they will be rooting for him here like never before … probably.

The World According to Rich: Here’s the McIlroy situation summarized much better and more succinctly than the previous paragraph thanks to Golf Channel host extraordinaire Rich Lerner: “If Rory does win, this Masters would be in the same historical neighborhood as 1986, 1997 and 2019. Rory would be the first true legend of the post-Tiger Woods Era. There have been great players in that era — Brooks Koepka, Scottie Scheffler, Dustin Johnson, maybe Xander Schauffele is on his way there — but Rory would be a legend of a different stripe.”

A Side Of History, Please, Medium Rare

You probably forgot how rare the career grand slam is because of the Tiger Slam when Woods won four straight majors over 2000-2001. Before that, the last man to complete the career slam was Nicklaus at the 1966 Masters. Remarkably, Player wrapped his up the year before. So 24 years since Woods, 59 years since Nicklaus. Famous comets visit more often than that.

No Mulligans Need Apply

Ludvig Aberg, who finished second last year in his inaugural Masters appearance, was asked about how close he came to joining Horton Smith — who won the first Masters in 1934 — Gene Sarazen and Fuzzy Zoeller as the only players to win the Masters in his first try. Said Aberg: “Yeah, it sucks that I don’t get a second try on that.” (Aberg is from Sweden. Do you know how hard it is to be funny in a second language? Huge bonus points.)

Why Rory Wins, Chapter 1

Said Golf Channel analyst Paul McGinley: “His greatest adversaries, the guys you would expect to be really challenged here, are slightly off their games. Scottie, I know he’s trending, and he’s getting closer, and it’s a matter of time before he wins. But is his first win going to be in a major championship at a Masters? He’s certainly going to be the guy to beat still but you can’t say that he’s flying the way he was this time last year.”

Why Rory Wins, Chapter 2

Said Golf Channel analyst Brandel Chamblee: “This Masters is Rory’s to win or lose. It’s his. He’s likely never going to catch Scheffler more off his game than right now. Xander is a little bit off his game. There are things about Augusta National that don’t quite fit Collin Morikawa. Ludvig Aberg is a little bit off. You go down the list and his closest competitors are all a little off. Rory has never been in a better spot.”

The Not So Fast My Friend Alert

If anyone has a bad memory of the Masters, it is McIlroy. He led it after three rounds in 2011 and then came apart in the final round, notably when he caromed a shot off the trees near the 10th tee that flew near the not-so-adjacent cabins. If a guy would have demons about a golf course, that day would be a good reason for it.

At 35, the clock is ticking. McIlroy knows it as well as anyone. The great players had a 10- or 12-year window of their best play, if they were lucky. McIlroy has been out here since he was 17. It’s already 14 years since his first major title. Said Chamblee, who always has statistics to back up his strong comments, “Augusta National is Rory’s nemesis. It annually brings out the worst golf in Rory. It was his worst golf last year in the majors, the worst the year before that and his worst two years before that. He annually underperforms there. The Masters winner hits an average of 52 greens in the tournament. Rory, on average, hits about 42.”

LIV And Let LIV

It is possible that you may be in some sort of Masters pool and placing a bet on the tournament. Reminder: “Gambling is illegal at Bushwood, sir, and I never slice.” — Judge Elihu Smails.) Just because LIV players are out of sight and out of mind, don’t underestimate them. My LIV favorites this week, in order of preference:

1. Jon Rahm: It’s only been two years since he won the Masters and last year he got ensnared in off-course obligations and distractions and played poorly. In 17 LIV events, he hasn’t finished outside of the top 10.

2. Phil Mickelson: This is not a joke. He’s had two top-10s on LIV this season, which is a quantum leap from from the previous years. Something is up with Phil, who is available at around 100-1 odds.

3. Cameron Smith: The driver has been killing him on LIV as he’s hitting under 50 percent of the fairways. But the Aussie, who has finished T2, T3, T5, T6 and T10 in five of the last seven Masters, is the best Augusta National putter in the field.

4. Bryson DeChambeau: He finished sixth last year, then won at Pinehurst and, even bigger, made a hole-in-one hitting wedge shots over his own house. If you can ace stately Wayne Manor, you can win the Masters. “It wouldn’t shock me if he went around Augusta and won by four or five shots,” said ESPN analyst Andy North, a two-time U.S. Open champ. “He hasn’t had a great record there but that can change. He’s almost reinvented himself in some ways.”

5. Brooks Koepka: He isn’t lighting up LIV but he never really lit up the PGA Tour, either. He’s a big-game hunter. His play last year had to really irritate him. And even if you thought he couldn’t win the Masters, who’d dare tell him? I think of that 6-iron he hit at Bellerive during his PGA win and, wow, I’ll never count him out. Gamer.

6. Patrick Reed: You’re laughing again. The former Captain America has finished 12th or better in four of the last five Masters, even though you probably didn’t notice. Drafting a Masters fantasy team? Include Reed, unless you’re not a fan of him, of course, and you’d rather lose without him than win with him.

How About Niemann? How About, No, Man

It was a smart marketing move for Masters chairman Fred Ridley to issue a special invitation to LIV Golf’s Joaquin Niemann, who has multiple wins on the rival tour. Mickelson, a fellow LIV player and ex-Masters champ, called Niemann the best player in the world after Niemann won in Singapore. That was Phil being Phil and supporting his league-mate. The facts on Niemann in major championships: 23 appearances, one top-20 finish (16th, 2023 Masters). Even Bob Uecker had a better batting average than that.

Luckily, Open Champs Get Free Range Balls

Bryson DeChambeau was informed by a media member that fans on the range can track every shot hit by players there and that he hit more balls than anyone on Tuesday. DeChambeau’s response: “Surprise!”

To Infinity And Beyond

The Weirdest Masters Preview Question Award goes to the guy who asked Viktor Hovland about how questioning UAP’s (Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena) and UFOs (Unidentified Flying Objects) helps him on the golf course. “Man, I don’t know how to answer that,” said Hovland, who had appeared on a podcast that discusses such topics.

This Is How You Get Stuck With A Nickname

Scheffler was clearly congested when he met with the media Tuesday afternoon. Asked if he felt OK, he said he did. “It’s this rain and the pollen here,” he said. “I get out of my car in the morning, my eyes start watering. It’s a little bit worse than normal years. I’m feeling good, ready to roll. Sniffles aren’t going to stop me.” OK, thanks … Sniffles.

The Long Goodbye

This will be the last Masters for Bernhard Langer, 67, although he is still competitive on PGA Tour Champions. “I asked the club chairman a few years back, ‘Is there a time limit? Do we age out when we’re 60? Or what is it?” Langer said. “He said, ‘No, you will know when it’s time to quit. It’s up to you.’ It is time to quit. I’m not competitive on this course anymore.”

CBS will give Langer a nice sendoff show, hosted by Nantz, before the final round, whether Langer makes the cut or not. His finish on Friday or Sunday will likely reveal that the stoic German does have emotions, after all. “My voice is already breaking a bit just realizing it’s going to be my last competitive Masters,” Langer said. “After four decades, it’s going to be bittersweet.” But mostly sweet.

Fred Being Fred

We may also be near the end of the Fred Couples Era in Augusta. He won the 1992 Masters, his only major, and he held the streak for consecutive cuts made until Tiger Woods edged ahead of him with his 24th straight last year. Couples is 65 and playing this week. Who knows if he’ll be back? I found this old Couples quote from a tournament, likely not a Masters, in which he wasn’t among the favorites: “This week I’m a dark shot.” That’s longshot meets dark horse in Fredspeak. Onward.

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