Handicapping the PGA Championship
The First Call's Gary Van Sickle taps into his friend, The Anonymous Gambler, for some insight that may lead to a big payday on Sunday.
LOUISVILLE, Kentucky — Congratulations, you get a second chance to wager on a big sporting event from here this month.
The first was the Kentucky Derby. Still smarting from losing by a nose with Sierra Leone or Forever Young to Mystic Dan, an 18-1 shot? I’m still smarting from watching Just A Touch finish “just a touch” behind Mystic Dan — 53 lengths behind. But I’m not bitter. (Much.)
Well, the PGA Championship comes to Valhalla Golf Club this week and I’m geared up to recover my losses via online golf wagering. (Of course, gambling is illegal at Bushwood, sir, and I never slice.)
Since this is a major, I’ve gone to the bullpen for a long-time friend, The Anonymous Gambler. Even though online wagering is legal in many states, he has his reasons — and/or ex-wives — why he needs to remain anonymous. The AG doesn’t bet golf regularly but assures me he does well.
We discussed this week’s PGA and I distilled his printable comments. He is OK with letting out a few secrets since he still owes me for telling him Tiger Woods was the play in the 2008 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines. That win paid for new hardwood floors at The AG’s estate.
Here’s how the PGA Championship shapes up, according to The AG:
BROOKS KOEPKA: You don’t have to be a genius to notice trends. The first time Major Brooks won the PGA and the U.S. Open, he won them again the next year. Well, he’s the defending PGA champ and after looking out of sorts at the Masters, he turned it around and won one of those LIV Golf exhibitions. That doesn’t mean much, but it’s enough to show he regained his putting stroke. In majors, Koepka is 008 — he’s got a license to kill. At 14-1 odds, that’s a pretty good hit. He’s my pick.
SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER: The only thing not to like about Scheffler is his price. He’s 4-1 or lower. Those are Tiger Woods-like odds and he’s not Woods. Scheffler is a brand new father, which could be a plus and take his mind off golf or it could be a distraction that takes him out of his winning zone. We won’t know until we know. When he won the Masters in 2022, his first major title, he missed the cut in the next major, the PGA Championship. I admire Scheffler’s game. Who doesn’t? But this week, the price is wrong.
RORY MCILROY: I dropped a few bread crumbs on McIlroy last Sunday morning at the Wells Fargo Championship for a simple reason. It was McIlroy versus Xander Schauffele. Mismatch. Well, I didn’t know McIlroy was going to blow the doors off X-Man and Quail Hollow or I would’ve dropped the whole loaf on him. A W is a W, though. I was pleased. Suddenly, he is Rory 4.0 and maybe the guy to beat at Valhalla, where he won his last major in 2014. I therefore felt compelled to bet McIlroy to win the PGA at 9-1 last week — his odds dropped after his win. Whether you believe in him or not, after that performance you’ve got to have something riding on him, whether it’s to win or finish top 5 or in a fantasy lineup. I’m a believer … temporarily, anyway. Simply ask yourself this: If Schauffele was allowed to wager on the PGA Championship, who do you think he’d put money on other than himself? You know.
LUDVIG ABERG: I like this big Swedish kid. My media-scum pal writing this told me ESPN’s Scott Van Pelt had Aberg on as a guest on a show and said in a media conference call, “He (Aberg) seems like a guy who would turn up in a James Bond film in a tuxedo. He’s impossibly handsome, he’s impossibly composed and he steps on a golf course and he’s impossibly talented.” That’s a summation. Aberg finished second at the Masters. I cashed a ticket on him to finish top 5, which more than covered my win bet on him, but that could’ve been a big W for me. Aberg is good and it’s hard to see how he misses the top 5. In that regard, he’s like Scheffler. FanDuel had him at 18-1 to win last week, 4-1 to finish top 5. I’m in. Maybe Scheffler vs. Aberg is going to be a thing for a next decade.
WYNDHAM CLARK: Nobody gives the reigning U.S. Open champion the proper respect, maybe because his personality isn’t instantly relatable. FanDuel has him at 35-1. Good odds for a current major winner. Worth a flyer. His power will be a good fit for a long-ish course that is going to play longer in wet conditions.
JON RAHM: It’s not that Rahm has lost his edge. The former U.S. Open and Masters champ has merely misplaced his edge. He still hasn’t won one of these LIV exhibitions, although he keeps finishing between third and eighth. But really, he can’t beat Dean Burmeister and Brendan Steele? I don’t know what his problem is but he was awful at the Masters. I’m ghosting him this week.
JORDAN SPIETH: The talking heads will beat it into the ground that Spieth needs a PGA to complete the career grand slam. I am all-out on Spieth. He hasn’t won a major in seven years and has won only twice during that period. Also, he’s got kids and a sore wrist. He was one hell of a comet across the sky from 2015-2017, but that was then. He shouldn’t have been on last year’s Ryder Cup team, but nobody asked me. I’m not touching him, even at 50-1.
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XANDER SCHAUFFELE: He’s always a top-5 or top-10 bet worth making. He hasn’t won a major, but he has the game. The X-Man is a Curtis Strange type, the sum of his game is greater than the parts. They’ve all got to be in sync for him and that’s tough to do in the Koepka-Scheffler era. Small odds for top 10 — 1.75-1. Not a great price but a conservative play.
TIGER WOODS: I wouldn’t consider Woods to win the PGA at 150-1 or even 220-1 (which I saw on one website). His body gave out after 36 holes at the Masters. He had an impressive first 36. He could make the PGA cut, maybe, but … He takes multiple ice baths to compete? I admire his toughness and desire but maybe it’s time to consider the TV tower.
JUSTIN THOMAS: Another guy who should not have been on last year’s Ryder Cup squad (which made my usual Europe wager even easier than normal). Thomas hasn’t won since Mito Pereira handed him the 2022 PGA and he’s been beating himself with his putter. Before the Wells Fargo, Thomas ranked 156th in putting from 10 feet or less on 419 attempts. He has played OK but hasn’t gotten results this year — which is another way of saying the putter is ripping his guts out.
MAX HOMA: This witty guy has six tour wins and played his best golf at the Masters, where he finished third. Looking at his numbers leaves me unimpressed. He’s below average in length off the tee and accuracy with his irons and average with his putting. His only other top-10 this year was an eighth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Has he kicked his game up a level due to the Masters? I can’t figure him out so I’m staying off him (except his Twitter feed).
COLLIN MORIKAWA: Another guy I feel obliged to list because his of third-place Masters finish. He’s not among the top 150 off the tee, distance-wise, and with rainy conditions and soft fairways, this PGA could be a big-hitters’ track. I like that his game seems to be coming around. Would like him at a little higher than his current 25-1 odds, though. He might be a guy for Pinehurst and the U.S. Open.
CAMERON SMITH: Loved watching this guy help his Aussie team win a playoff in a LIV home game in Adelaide. He’s still as clutch around the greens as anyone in the game. We’ve kind of forgotten that he won a British Open and a Players Championship in impressive fashion. Once you’re on LIV, you’re off the grid. I wouldn’t say I’m loading up on him at 28-1, but his game travels well and he’s not afraid to win anywhere. I like him top-5 at 6.5-1, but I’m going harder on him to win.
CHRIS KIRK: Look, one fun part of wagering is trying to hit a long shot. Kirk is 200-1 and underrated. He has six Tour wins, including the Sentry Insurance season-opener and was 16th at the Masters and 10th the following week at the RBC Heritage. Kirk is average-length off the tee but very accurate, a superior iron player — he ranks 18th in proximity to the hole — and good with a wedge. The putter isn’t his best weapon, but if Valhalla’s greens are wet, soft and possibly slower, that might be his speed. What’s $5 to win a $1,000?
TAYLOR PENDRITH: Here’s another longshot. I can’t believe he’s 300-1 coming off a win this month at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He’s 32, from Canada and it’s taken him a long time to get here. He has played only four majors in his life, so he’s out of his element. But he’s a big hitter and an interesting play at 6-1 to finish top 20.
MICHAEL BLOCK: The club pro legend from last year’s PGA at Oak Hill returns at 25-1 odds to finish top 20. Lightning usually only strikes once. I might put a few pesos on him just to have a rooting interest, but it’s not going to be enough to refinish my hardwood floors, which look worn. If Koepka wins this thing, though, I can get my floors an overdue makeover.
Hilarious, but accurate. Love this piece.